《外汇交易实战图表与交易心理 》 作 者：(新加坡)许强 (美国)Gary Weiss

In this example, of course, and with the benefit of hindsight, the trade recommendation was absolutely correct. But, more importantly, in this particular circumstance was the method that I had used to express my trade views. Here, by putting on a trade that possessed the maximum inherent benefits from the start, I was able to capture a significant move in a not so obvious currency pair. Which of course is the main point for looking at the carry implications in the first place. As with any trading position, a review of not just the directional bias needs to be taken into account, but also the interest rate components that might serve to maximize the potential benefit for holding on to the position in the first place.

名词解释

Carry:利率差额交易；套利外汇交易；息差交易。例 如，当利率偏低，投资者便借人短息（1%)买长债（4%)， 稳赚可观息差；及/或当美元汇价看低，便借入美元买进看 升的亚洲股、汇市。

Rollover:展期交割，在外汇市场或货币市场上，将原 有交易的交割日向后延展，称之为展期。

Dollar Parity:美元平价，用美元作为基准货币评定其 他货币价值的标准和依据。

Money Center Bank: —些在金融业中占据中心地位的 大型银行，在商业银行利率确定过程中发挥倡导性作用， 避免过度的金融业价格竞争。

Over Night：当日交割的隔夜拆放资金，简称为O/N。 在外汇市场的换汇交易及货币拆放中，以交昜日当日为第 一个交割日，而次一营业日为第二个交割曰。

The Risk/Reward Ratio:风险收益比。

Futures markets Are they predictive in nature

There has been a great deal written about whether futures markets can be viewed as predictive of movements or the future distillation of events in the aggregate. Particularly in the United States, there has beeri a great deal of attention paid to this concept even on a theoretical level. Recall, the now discredited idea of actually setting up a futures market that would gauge the possibility of certain terrorist related activity. But whether on a more practical level this type of thought process is viable for established markets that have associated futures contracts is an interesting question that may at least have some anecdotal validity. Take for example the current state of indexed futures for equity markets. The idea, in this regard, of which market actually leads the other (using in this context S&P futures) seems often to be in dispute, with indicators of open interest, volume levels and other types of even more esoteric criteria being viewed as significant. The same can be said with regard to futures contracts in the currency markets. In this case however, the very idea of futures having much influence is somewhat counter intuitive given the absolute size of the cash market as opposed to futures. But this very issue is, in many ways the core of the argument in favor of futures actually being predictive. For example, the cash markets represent enormous volume figures, because there is a covering process that takes place for each amount traded, until it actually reaches the eventual end user. Specifically, if a dealer were to quote a trade for 10 million US dollars size equivalent, whether for position purposes, offset, or internal funding, the actual usable size of that position is often not $10 million but rather a small percentage. This perpetuates a hedge or cover needed for the position, against another dealer. The same group of events repeats itself through multiple dealers, until such time as the total size of the initial position is effectively digested into the market for use against a theoretical end user. Often this could mean as many as 10 times the initial trade size being actually dispelled into the market as a result of one initial trade. This of course, leads to a distorted view relating to the significance of volume related statistics. In the futures market, on the other hand, it can be argued that the other side of each trade is in fact an eventual end user, whether for hedge or speculative purposes, which, unlike the cash market, obviates the need for a successive daisy chain of extended volume. The point here is that futures, even though smaller in terms of size than the cash market, cannot be dis missed in terms of their relevance towards being part of a predictive model.

Still, and assuming an implied significance beyond its physical size, the key question remains as to what elements of futures markets can be viewed as being significant. Given, that the futures markets are regulated, there is a great deal of verifiable data available with regard to volumes, ranges, and open interest, that would be difficult to duplicate within the cash maricets. In terms of volume, this is a fairly simplistic concept which generally goes to the point that volume tends to follow price, thus often times being useful only as a coincident indicator of trend. Open interest on the other hand may in fact be a more useful indicator. The concept of open interest is that it gauges the outstanding amount of contracts that are open and pending between two parties to a futures contract at any given time. The usefulness of this measurement, therefore, is that it can essentially indicate the direction that new participants in the market are viewing the price, or trend of the market price to be heading. For example, if one is to assume that open interest only increases when new market participants enter the market in greater amounts than existing market participants exit the market, then the logical inference is to look for increasing open interest to correspond to a significant movement in price. The combination of these two occurrences will lead to the conclusion that the trend for further price movements in the same direction would look strong. The corresponding inverse assumption would be the case for a decrease of open interest that might correspond to a significant price movement. In this case, one might conclude that there is a decrease of interest at the particular price level and that a continued directional movement is probably limited. Still, as one might probably infer, this is less than an exact science.