《外汇交易实战图表与交易心理 》 作 者：(新加坡)许强 (美国)Gary Weiss

名词解释

Clearing House:金融机构交换支付指令或者其他金融 债务（即证券）的一个中心地点或者一种中央处理机制。

Swap: —笔掉期外汇买卖可以看成由两笔交易金额相 同，起息日不同，交易方向相反的外汇买卖组成的，因此一笔掉期外汇买卖具有一前一后两个起息日和两项约定的 汇率水平。在掉期外汇买卖中，客户和银行按约定的汇率 水平将一种货币转换为另一种货币，在第一个起息日进行 资金的交割，并按另一项约定的汇率将上述两种货币进行 方向相反的转换，在第二个起息日进行资金的交割。

最常见的掉期交易是把一笔即期交易与一笔远期交易 合在一起，等同于在即期卖出甲货币买进乙货币的同时， 反方向地买进远期甲货币、卖出远期乙货币的外汇买卖交 易。

Rolling Over:展期交割，在外汇市场或货币市场上， 将原有交易的交割日向后延展，称之为展期。

The front leg of the swap： —笔换汇交易是由两笔交易 金额相同，起息日不同，交易方向相反的外汇买卖组成的， 因此，它具有一前一后两个起息日和两项约定的汇率水平。 其中，前面的起息日及交易活动，我们称为The front leg of the swap 。

Tomorrow Next (Tom/Next):明日起息隔夜拆放。为 下一日交割同时买入和卖出一种货币Spot next次二营业 日交割之隔夜拆放。

It’s the Cany

As with much of foreign exchange trading, the inference that a constant indicator is the key or critical component of anything is often just nonsense. Common sense tells us that if this were the case, well, then we*d all be rich. But, just the notion of consistency is itself misnomer, because markets, by definition tend to adjust to the base knowledge of its participants. Which means that eventually, even the most complex of trading systems will fall prey to being understood and discounted into a markets price at any particular moment. In contrast, however, to this stark reality, there is a comer of trading that does have some characteristics that actually do imply some type of consistency. And, strangely enough, most market participants often tend to overlook this general idea. To put this in context, I would like to relate a particular incident that occurred during a recent speech given in Beijing, this past January. I was asked whether I thought the Euro was going to go higher. To which I said yes. Followed quickly however, with the comment that I would not want to be outright long the Euro against the US Dollar. Although seemingly contradictory, and Tm sure a bit confusing for the person posing the question, in fact these two responses are actually quite compatible. The reason for this, of course, has to do with interest rates.

In previous chapters I discussed the idea of dollar parity as a pricing component of any foreign exchange contract. Only in passing however，did I go through the idea of cross currency interest rate comparisons as being equally significant. As a general concept the idea of interest rates being a core determinant of a currency price is not particularly arcane. However, it is the relativity of the interest rates that underlie each component of the particular currency pair that actually is one of the key pricing issues. These cross currency interest rate differentials are known figures, however, they are anything but static. Usually, they reflect the market expectation as to whether and by how much the interest rates may move during a specific period of time. By way of example, it*s worth putting this into a specific time component and drawing some conclusions. For this purpose I will refer to the interest rate structure of various currency pairs that existed as of January 2005. In this instance the Euro overnight interest rate was 2.25%, the US Dollar overnight interest rate was 2.50% and the Japanese Yen overnight interest rate was 0.0%. By using these static components, one can see that the differential on interest rates from high to low is clearly in favor of both the Dollar and the Euro, as opposed to the Yen. However by looking at this situation more critically, one can also see that the widest differential is between the Euro against the Yen and also, the Dollar against the Yen, as opposed to the Euro against the Dollar. This is an important observation because it actually goes to the core of what a currency pair represents in the first place, which is both a loan and a deposit taken out simultaneously; a deposit in the context of the long side of the pair and a loan, representative of the short side. For example, a long Dollar Yen position is in reality nothing more than a Dollar deposit and a Yen loan. In fact, most bank funding operations are intricately tied to foreign exchange because the idea of making the most spread on loans or deposits can most often be expressed through the use of multiple layers of currency.