《外汇交易实战图表与交易心理 》 作 者：(新加坡)许强 (美国)Gary Weiss

Well, the answer here is anything but obvious. However, certain things about all of these seemingly contradictory indicators do need to have some clarity for anyone looking at trading in the foreign exchange markets. For instance, what we have found, mostly from circumstantial as opposed to empirical evidence, is that what actually needs to be monitored for most traders is not so much the improvement of the particular indicator (in this case the current account deficit problem) , but rather the change of the trend of the indictor. In the case of the present day example that we have noted, a conclusion can be drawn that once the rise in interest rates has worked its way through the system, to show a decrease in the downward momentum in the dollar, the current account deficit problem should show some signs of improvement. Even if this change is minimal or particularly subtle, it is actually the most critical element of the whole discussion. It is when the trend changes, or more precisely, when the turn in momentum finally shows up in the economic data, that the data itself becomes relevant to the short term trader. Here, a reversal in trading bias, even for the short term speculator needs to be examined.

To sum it up, although analysts have often spoken about the importance of economic data as the backdrop to any trading decision, keep in mind that these figures, in and of themselves, are not necessarily indicative of price movement. Instead, by paying attention to the trend of the economic data, or more specifically the change in that trend, most traders can usually derive substantial benefit.

名词解释

Twin Deficit:双赤字。即对外贸易赤字与财政预算赤 字。

Plaza Accord:广场协议。20世纪80年代初期，美国 财政赤字剧增，对外贸易逆差大幅增长。美国希望通过美 元贬值来增加产品的出口竞争力，以改善美国国际收支不 平衡状况。

1985年9月22日，美国、日本、联邦德国、法国以 及英国的财政部长和中央银行行长在纽约广场饭店举行会 议，达成五国政府联合干预外汇市场，诱导美元对主要货 币的汇率有秩序地贬值，以解决美国巨额贸易赤字问题的 协议。因协议在广场饭店签署，故该协议又被称为“广场 协议”。

“广场协议”签订后，上述五国开始联合干预外汇市 场，在国际外汇市场大量抛售美元，继而形成市场投资者 的抛售狂潮，导致美元持续大幅度贬值。1985年9月，美 元兑日元在1美元兑250日元上下波动，协议签订后不到 3个月的时间里，美元迅速下跌到1美元兑200日元左右， 跌幅20%。

在这之后，以美国财政部长贝克为代表的美国当局以 及以弗日德•伯格斯藤（当时的美国国际经济研究所所长） 为代表的金融专家们不断地对美元进行口头干预，表示当 时的美元汇率水平仍然偏高，还有下跌空间。在美国政府 强硬态度的暗示下，美元对日元继续大幅度下跌，最低曾 跌到1美元兑120日元。在不到三年的时间里，美元对日 元贬值了 50%,也就是说，日元对美元升值了一倍。

有专家认为，日本经济进人十多年低迷期的罪魁祸首 就是“广场协议”。但也有专家认为，日元大幅升值为日本企业走向世界、在海外进行大规模扩张提供了良机，也促 进了日本产业结构调整，最终有利于日本经济的健康发展。 因此，日本泡沫经济的形成不应该全部归罪于日元升值。 Appreciation:增值，涨价。

Depreciation:贬值，跌价。

Short term Speculator:短线投机客，采取短线交易的交 易者。

Interest Rate Tightening Cycle ；利率紧缩期。

Dollar parity

There is a basic concept of price in the foreign exchange markets that goes to the core of any valuation model. This is the concept of dollar parity. Or, to put it plainly, just why a price is a price...is a price. To many, this is a bit of an add concept, but in general terms, the idea is that any currency pair has a derived price based on the underlying interest rate equivalent of its component parts. Notice here that I talk about a derived price. The use of this term is not by chance. In fact, for many, foreign exchange is actually viewed as a derivative market. Or, more specifically, a market where a price is dictated by the valuation of another underlying source. This of course, is very different than other asset classes such as equities, or even debt instruments, where price is basically a measurement of a singular asset, at any particular time. But the idea that interest rates are the primary price motivator of foreign exchange, makes the market even more unique than other derivatives, because although the link is direct, often times the market doesn't quite work as might be expected. In fact, as market views of interest rates change，sometimes the correlation is anything but direct, leading to divergence in swap rates, forwards and even outright spot rates. The point here is that although interest rates are known quantities, they are also known to be changeable. The market anticipation of these changes, and their frequency, often account for a significant amount ofvolatility created in spot price movements within the market.