《外汇交易实战图表与交易心理》 作 者：(新加坡)许强 (美国)Gary Weiss

Not withstanding the necessity for rollovers, the extension of credit, in terms of position sizes that can be kept outstanding, and of course the amount of margin necessary to be on deposit with a particular financial institution at any given time,the idea of trading on margin also carries with it the specific inference of creating financial leverage. For example, if one were to use the same example of a long p>osition of one million pounds Sterling at 1.9305, the relative margin that might be called to hold this position open would generally be in the order of (5% of the implied dollar value or .05x 1,9305,000) approximately $96,000. Once again, using the hypothetical end of day mark to market loss of 15 points, the loss on this position of $1500 can be extrapolated as being 1.5% overnight, or an annualized 540% loss on implied capital usage. Clearly, this leverage goes both ways, and the amount of theoretical gain on invested capital can also be enormous. The point here is that margin can be an enormously powerful tool for trading in larger sizes than might be implied by specific amounts of capital. Effectively, through the use of margin as a funding technique for trading foreign exchange, the difference between what might have previously been referred to, as retail versus institutional trade size is now indistinguishable.

As the profile of margin and leveraged customers within the foreign exchange market has increased, there has also been a significant amount of irreversible characteristics that have taken hold within the market as a whole. Most notably, in this regard, is the amount of absolute liquidity available at any one time. For example, as the size of trading has increased, and speculative interest has grown, the banks that have historically quoted prices have been forced to trade in larger sizes to accommodate this demand. The extension of this dynamic haslead to the introduction of multiple new outlets and price distribution channels, particularly through electronic connections. In fact, during the most part of the past ten years, the only significant electronic trading platforms were EBS and Reuters, both of whom dealt exclusively with the wholesale bank trading community at laige. Within the past few years however, this has dramatically changed. Not only in the context of single bank proprietary electronic systems, given out to direct bank customers, but larger platforms such as Currenex, Fxall, and Hotspot, to name a few, are now all available to direct customers. Through these types of multi bank portals, traders can now access what is effectively inter bank pricing, on a direct basis. All of which would have been impossible without the implicit assumption that margin trading were available to these multiple classes of customers as a means of settlement. The point here is that mai^in, as a basis for trading foreign exchange， has actually precipitated a fundamental re configura tion of trading in general. As this trend continues, with a wider audience growing accustomed to the issues related to both margin and its implied effects on leverage, foreign exchange will become continuously more transparent in terms of price, and more diverse in terms of its overall customer base.

名词解释

Clearing House:金融机构交换支付指令或者其他金融 债务（即证券）的一个中心地点或者一种中央处理机制。

Swap: —笔掉期外汇买卖可以看成由两笔交易金额相 同，起息日不同，交易方向相反的外汇买卖组成的，因此一笔掉期外汇买卖具有一前一后两个起息日和两项约定的 汇率水平。在掉期外汇买卖中，客户和银行按约定的汇率 水平将一种货币转换为另一种货币，在第一个起息日进行 资金的交割，并按另一项约定的汇率将上述两种货币进行 方向相反的转换，在第二个起息日进行资金的交割。

最常见的掉期交易是把一笔即期交易与一笔远期交易 合在一起，等同于在即期卖出甲货币买进乙货币的同时， 反方向地买进远期甲货币、卖出远期乙货币的外汇买卖交 易。

Rolling Over:展期交割，在外汇市场或货币市场上， 将原有交易的交割日向后延展，称之为展期。

The front leg of the swap： —笔换汇交易是由两笔交易 金额相同，起息日不同，交易方向相反的外汇买卖组成的， 因此，它具有一前一后两个起息日和两项约定的汇率水平。 其中，前面的起息日及交易活动，我们称为The front leg of the swap 。

Tomorrow Next (Tom/Next):明日起息隔夜拆放。为 下一日交割同时买入和卖出一种货币Spot next次二营业 日交割之隔夜拆放。

It’s the Cany

As with much of foreign exchange trading, the inference that a constant indicator is the key or critical component of anything is often just nonsense. Common sense tells us that if this were the case, well, then we*d all be rich. But, just the notion of consistency is itself misnomer, because markets, by definition tend to adjust to the base knowledge of its participants. Which means that eventually, even the most complex of trading systems will fall prey to being understood and discounted into a markets price at any particular moment. In contrast, however, to this stark reality, there is a comer of trading that does have some characteristics that actually do imply some type of consistency. And, strangely enough, most market participants often tend to overlook this general idea. To put this in context, I would like to relate a particular incident that occurred during a recent speech given in Beijing, this past January. I was asked whether I thought the Euro was going to go higher. To which I said yes. Followed quickly however, with the comment that I would not want to be outright long the Euro against the US Dollar. Although seemingly contradictory, and Tm sure a bit confusing for the person posing the question, in fact these two responses are actually quite compatible. The reason for this, of course, has to do with interest rates.