《外汇交易实战图表与交易心理》 作 者：(新加坡)许强 (美国)Gary Weiss

The question of course, as to why the basis was trading over the implied interest rate carry has a lot to do with the general chaos that prevailed during this period of time. For example a 15% carry with spot being at 10 dollars an ounce e quates to approximately 38 cents for each three month period. But what if the base price were to be measured from let's say 30 dollars an ounce. Here, this same 15% three month carry would equate to approximately 1.125 dollars. This significant difference is effectively the market's way of saying that even though the present cany, in interest rate terms, may be one price; the market believes strongly that the base price will increase significantly. Therefore, that bias is reflected in the increased valuation of the basis.

Understanding this subtle pricing dynamic in the case of silver prices in the early 1980*s lead to the possibility of making substantial money trading the swaps. But for the more discerning observer, the basis measurement could quite possibly have also given an indication as to where the market perceived that the base commodity would eventually trade. This is the same today for virtually any trading commodity or currency. The basis, or swap differential can often times be used as a gauge to measure the market sentiment. By understanding that the interest rate spread is only one part of this price, anything above or below this measurement can be construed as a measurement of market bias.

As a point of reference, the commodity house where I traded actually did quite well during the great metals run up in the early 1980’s. Mostly however, this was done through trading hedged as opposed to outright long positions and watching the carry component of the swap.

This story is relevant on two levels however. First, as with other points that have been mentioned, the price of any trading vehicle usually has many different determinant factors. Second however, and actually more important, is the idea that unless you are aware of many points that relate to the pricing of any particular asset, conclusions about that price can often times prove erroneous.

名词解释

Basis:基差，避险者所以能够利用期货交易规避现货 价格风险，在于现货与期货的价格间存在一定的间距关系， 称之为基差（basis)。基差为现货价格减去期货价格之值， 因为储存成本、保险利息等费用，期货价格通常较现货价 格为高，故基差多为负数。

Artificial cross rate:人工汇率，随着欧洲汇率体系的 生效，西欧各国便被结为一体，他们的货币不再盯住黄金 或是美元——而是相互盯住，每一种货币只在波动界限的 范围内交易。如果任何一种货币达到了波动界限的上限或 下限，那么，各国中央银行就有责任通过买卖使该货币回到波动范围之内。在此范围内，成员国的货币对其他成员 国货币的汇率可以相对浮动，并且要以德国马克为中心货 币。

Hedge Fund:对冲基金，意为风险对冲过的基金，起 源于20世纪50年代初的美国。其操作的宗旨，在于利用 期货、期权等金融衍生产品以及对相关联的不同股票进行 实f空卖、风险对冲的操作技巧，在一定程度上可规避和 化解投资风险。

Market Crash:崩盘。市场在悲观心理的作用下大幅下 挫的情形，对大部分市场投资者伤害很深。

Long:在一般金融产品的交易过程中，Long代表买入 该金融产品的动作。在外汇市场中，Long代表买入被报价 货币的动作。在货币拆放市场中，Long表示借入货币的动 作。

Short:在一般金融产品的交易过程中，Short代表卖出 该金融产品的动作。在外汇市场中，Short代表卖出被报价 货币的动作。在货币拆放市场中，Short表示贷出货币的动 作。

Maigin Call:追加保证金。投资人在从事保证金交易或 期货交易时，若其投资标的物的账面损失超过其保证金的 某一比率，其经纪商会通知投资人，要求其在规定时间内 补足其保证金。否则，经纪商会出清投资人的投资，以避 免损失扩大。

Spot:即期交易。在外汇交易市场中，Spot就是所谓即 期交易，其交割日通常为交易日后的第二个营业日。只有 少数货币（如加币）的即期交易日的后的第一个营业曰。

Swap:换汇交易，在外汇市场中，买卖双方约定以A 货币换B货币，并于未来某一特定日期，再以B货币换回A货币。

E.F.P.:期货转现货交易（Exchange For Physical E.F. P)。两个交易者同时以等量的现货与期货契约相互交易， 其成交纪录必须呈报交易所。

Hedge:风险规避。采取适当的措施，以规避投资或经 营的风险。一个真正完美的风险规避措施，是把所有可能 发生利得或损失的几率排除在外。