《外汇交易实战图表与交易心理》 作 者：(新加坡)许强 (美国)Gary Weiss

This is very different from either a central bank or a hedge fund. In the case of a central bank, they will trade in large part as to their position against either existing reserves, or the implied shift that will eventually change the makeup of those existing reserves. The hedge fund, while not dealing withreserves exactly, can also be looked at within the same context. Meaning that the amounts traded relate to nothing more than the leveraged amount of capital that would be used to fund a particular trading strategy. The net result of these issues is that they both result in enormous multiples of positions being put on, that in many ways bear no resemblance at all to the physical needs for delivery that might be expected to take place within the market at some future point in time. While noting that the movement of certain large corporate users may at times provide a short term price spike in the market, this is generally quite limited. Also, because these trades occur somewhat independent of policy moves by central banks or intervention programs in general, they are often much more difficult to discern.

With regard to the last broadly defined trading group, these being the speculative, or chart traders in general, they tend to view the category of corporate or real money trading as being particularly less useful to observe, as opposed to that of either the hedge funds or central banks. Which is interesting given the context of what the speculators tend to do in general, that is, identify and follow technical as opposed to the fundamental issues within the market.

The result of this particular dynamic is that technical price levels which are initially established by the hedge fund and central bank trade activity, will often times be then further exaggerated by the additional add on trading done by the speculator group. All of which goes to the argument as to why markets tend to overshoot price levels or areas that are agreed to be representative of parity or sustainability in the first place. As a practical matter, chart and speculative traders tend to form one of the largest parts of the foreign exchange market. However, they are also one of the least understood. Since, others often dictate market direction, it can be argued that there really is no mandated reason for the existence of this category of traders. Further, this reactive type of trading atmosphere often creates a self fulfilling type of trade cycle because others can often anticipate the movement of markets in and around certain known chart points. Including in this context, the hedge funds and the central bankers that, as I have mentioned, tend to initiate the oianic movements within the market by virtue of their own activity.

If aU of this sounds a bit circular, it has been presented as sur’i for a reason. Although foreign exchange markets are made up of different participants that can be broadly identified, it should never be construed that these elements act independent of one another. In fact, this differentiated trading activity, in many cases will tend to cause unexpected results. By understanding the makeup of these players however, one can often gain perspective to the possible movement in price that may result from the activity of any one particular group.

名词解释

Fundamental “Real Money” Position Takers:以商业需求型风险规避为目的，采取适当的措施，以规避投资或经营的风险的交易者，通常为大型生产企业。

Chart Based Speculative Traders:通过技术图表分析进 行交易的投机人士。

Concerted Intervention:联合干預。各国中央银行联手 干预市场的行为，具有强大的效果。

The Market Making Mirage

There is a common misconception among the buy side, or trading price takers in the currency markets, that the function of market making is the key to consistently winning in foreign exchange. Although the thought process here is somewhat cloudy, there is a compelling argument to be made that the market maker can mostly capture the risk free bid and offer spread of a trade price and thereby always be able to trade at an advantage to the average customer. However, there is a fundamental flaw in this reasoning. Specifically, this logic assumes that the markets themselves are static when, in fact, they are always moving. A bid offer spread for example, is usually transient. So much so, that often times this same spread capture idea can actually turn into a trade position negative when all is said and done. So the question then as to how profit as a market maker can be fully realized, actually has to be viewed as two distinctly different scenarios. First，there is the obvious idea that the wider the quote, the more likely the spread capture becomes. Secondly, and somewhat more arcane, is the concept that by seeing the customer^ buying and selling at differ ent levels，a degree of uncorrelated market intelligence can be gained through this order flow.