《超越K线战法和斐波那契技术上》 作 者：魏强斌 欧阳傲杰 王浩

Soros has written a large bucket of books among which the most famous is The Alchemy of Finance. In this book he tried to build a system of speculation. His teachers are Karl Popper and Hayek. The two thought that human perception has some inherent f1aws , so their students Soros consequently deems that emotion and limited rationality lead to "Boom and Burst Cycles" of market; while if a man wants to become a great trader, he must overcome influences of such f1aws and furthermore take advantage of them. Soros tried to build a systematic framework for trading based on economic ideas of Hayek and philosophic thoughts of Karl Popper. Reflexivity is the ve叮 core of this system.

l may still tell you so many financial gurus taking systematic trading and mechanical trading as their principles, for instance, Bernstein (master of short line tradi ng), Bill Williarns (master of Chaos Trading) , etc. Too many. Let' s jusl forget about them.

Well, from the abstract perspective, why shall we take the road to systematic trading and mechanical trading? Please let me show you some very obvious reasons.

First. A man' s perception and action are easily affected by market and participating groups. When you are staying in market or a group for more than 5 minutes, you will be hypnotized by ambient setting and ever since that your decisions will be affected by irrational elements.

Second. Any trading is composed of situation analysis and account management. It involves not only entrance but exit which may be either exit at profit or exit at a loss, and there are problems such as selling out and buying in. all these require multiple decision makings, particularly in short line trading. Complicated and frequent decision -making is beyond the average brain of emotional and busy people. 1 bet every short line player of forex or gold knows it well that decision -making in fatigue and anxiety usually leads to failure. Well, systematic trading and machanical trading are able to manage these procedures repeatedly in a process and thus can save lots of time and energy.

Third. People make decisions in a quite casual manner. A more important factor is that people use di{ferent strategies in varying degrees in trading. This makes it difficult to evaluate the performance of such trading because in that way you will not know how much a specific factor plays in the N tradings. And the player can not improve his skills consequenlly. This is the very reason that many domestic retail investors make no progress at all for many years. Evaluation of trading techniques and stralegies shall be based on plenty enough trading sarnples while it' s simply impossible for tradings casually made for every trading adopts a variant strategy and samples accordingly derive from a different totality which can not be used for calculating and analysis. On the contra巧， systematic trading and mechanical trading adopt the same strategy every time so they have applicable samples for

performance evaluation and it' s easier to pinpoint problems, for instance, a player may in first, second ... twenty -first tradings used strategies A, B, C, D. He himself could not make effective evaluation of each strategy for he used them in varying degrees in these tradings, but systematic trading and mechanical trading can shoot 出is trouble completely.Therefore, if you want to evaluate your trading strategies rationally and make quicker progress, you have to take systematic trading and mechanical trading as principles.

Fourth. Currendy the financial market is developing at a staggering speed. Stock, forex, gold, commodity, index futures, interest rate futures, options, etc, everything new is coming out. So many opportunities! Well ，if we just rely on human mind in grasping these opportunities, it is absolutely not enough. The emergence of large -scale funds makes the risk of personal judgment of fund managers pretty high. Take it easy, anyway, because we now have mechanical trading and systematic trading which has become an irrevocable trend of this age. Furthermore, derivatives such as options can not live without systematic trading and mechanical trading for it involves usage of large amount of mathematic and physical models which are simply beyond the reach of human strength.

Chinese people believe that human mind is superior to computer. Well, this is not wrong, but it is not completely right either. The greatness of human mind is its creativity; while its weakness is that it' s vulnerable to emotion and past experiences. In modern financial trading, the main function of a trader is not looking at the board and executing deals一these are the responsibilities of the trading system -instead, his main function is to design the trading system and examine the performance of it and make according improvements. This process unifies human creativity and mechanical uniformity. The success of a trader is derived from tow factors: smart idea and discipline. When the trader is executing deals, discipline becomes a problem; when existing trading system makes newcomers give up thinking, creativity becomes dead. If, we let the trader and the tradingn system do their respective jobs well, what we need to do is soliciting profit from market only!