《道氏理论：顶级交易员深入解读》 作 者：Robert Bhea（原著） 魏强斌（译注）

Fourth. Currently the financial market is developing at a staggering speed. Stock, forex,gold, commodity, index futures, interest rate futures, options, etc., everything new is coming out. So many opportunities! Well , if we just rely on human mind in grasping these opportunities, it is absolutely not enough. The emergence of large-scale funds makes the risk of personal judgment of fund managers pretty high. Take it easy, anyway, because we now have mechanical trading and systematic trading which has become an irrevocable trend of this age. Furthermore, derivatives such as options can not live without systematic trading and mechanical trading for it involves usage of large amount of mathematic and physical models which are simply beyond the reach of human strength.

Chinese people believe that human mind is superior to computer. Well ,this is not wrong, but it is not completely right either. The greatness of human mind is its creativity;while its weakness is that it ’s vulnerable to emotion and past experiences. In modern financial trading, the main function of a trader is not looking at the board and executing deals-these are the responsibilities of the trading system-instead, his main function is to design the trading system and examine the performance of it and make according improvements. This process unifies human creativity and mechanical uniformity. The success of a trader is derived from tow factors: smart idea and discipline. When the trader is executing deals, discipline becomes a problem; when existing trading system makes newcomers give up thinking, creativity becomes dead. If, we let the trader and the trading system do their respective jobs well, what we need to do is soliciting profit from market only!

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第一章  道氏理论的演化The Evolution of a Theory

道氏理论的影响力日益彰显，最初查尔斯占有的数据只有几年，相形之下我们却有了长达35年的数据来验证和完善理论本身，这足以让我们进行更加全面的研究。再往前推，20年后，那时的人们将比我们更具优势，因为在研究股市上他们拥有更长的数据可供使用。

查尔斯·H.道是全国最大财经通讯社一一道琼斯公司的创始人，同时他还是《华尔街日报》的拥有者，直到他1902年去世之前他一直负责这份报纸的主编工作。在他生命的最后几年，他撰写过一些关于股票投机的评论文章，这些文章涉及他个人对股市中重复出现结构的观察和记录。这些观察和记录的主要对象是道琼斯铁路和工业股票平均价格指数变化。

查尔斯·H.道并未将自己的这些观察心得命名为道氏理论，正式命名的工作是由他的继任者和朋友S.A.尼尔森1902年在《股票投机入门》（The ABC of Stock Speculation）一书中首度提出的。尼尔森试图从实际运用的角度来阐释查尔斯开创的理论方法。

现在不少成功的金融界人士普遍认为道琼斯铁路和工业股票平均价格指数是到目前为止最为有效和可靠的趋势指标，对于股市本身和整个经济都有较好的指示作用。金融界通常将基于股票平均价格指数推断股市整体大势的方法称为“道氏理论”。

1897年之前，道琼斯公司只建立和发布了一个股票平均价格指数，此后从1897年开始它们将这一指数分拆为两个指数：铁路股票平均指数和工业股票平均指数。查尔斯在记录和评论股市走势的时候，最多只有5年的两种股指数据记录，在这么短时间的数据基础上发现股市规律并且建立起道氏理论真的是非常了不起。尽管当初的某些观点和结论被后来的实践证明不正确，但是其基本原则仍旧经受住了现实的检验，在查尔斯去世之后的28年当中这一理论的有效性持续得到证明。

威廉·彼得·汉米尔顿是查尔斯的得力助手，他经常发表一些评论文章对市场走势做出预测，这使得道氏理论能够继续完善和发扬光大。汉米尔顿对股市的预判整体而言是非常有效的，他的评论文章迅速成为了《华尔街日报》的热门栏目，大家对其的追捧一直持续到1929年12月他去世为止。

汉米尔顿在1922年撰写了一本名为《股市晴雨表》（The Stock Market Barometer）的专著。因为可以不受篇幅的限制，他在专著当中详细地阐释了道氏理论的原理和方法，这本书目前在市面上已经绝版了，但是它确实是一本经典而成功的著作。这本书在当时引发了激烈的讨论，对后世的影响也极其深远，以至于现在都还能看到这本书在财经媒体上的影响力。遭受非议的主要地方在于那些号称能够基于统计学预测股市的人大都不承认