《趋势跟踪：顺势交易名家策略解读》 作 者：迈克尔·卡沃尔

这本书能够出版，和吉姆 · 博伊德在Financial Times PrenticeHall 上写的评论导读，以及丹尼斯 · 海格比的大力帮助有关。我还要感谢唐纳 · 库林事斯、利沙亚 · 科夫斯基和约翰 · 皮尔斯，他们慷慨地提供了研究成果和交易技巧。感谢牛津大学出版社的保罗 · 唐纳利，他使我对这本书的潜力有了真正的了解。

迈克尔·卡沃尔


———————【全球外汇中文网Fx263.com  ，阅读更多请登录www.Fx263.com】———————
I take great pleasure in knowing that Trend Following is now available in Chinese. This is the first book to tell the story of this network of relatively reclusive yet enormously successful traders andhow they trade. The history of trend following , the stories of greattrend followers , and how they emerged as winners from some of the biggest market events in the history of trading , makes fascinating and relevanlt reading for anyone who is interested in trading, investingand the markets. Why? trend following trading is applicable to all markets. It crosses geopolitical ， cultural or language boundaries. Itis the best Irading strategy for profiting over the long term lor investors of any nationality living anywhere worldwide. 

You' ll be interested to discover those trading events involving Asian markets when trend followers won big what othet traders lost .For example, The Barings Bank collapse of 1995 involved a rogue trader overextending the Queen' s Bank of England on the Nikkei 225. Who won when Barings lost? Trend lollowers did. The Asian Crisis011997 wiped out the multi-million dollar hedge funds of one infamous oustrader in a day. Learn why he misjudged the market at the same time as trend followers were assessing it correctly. More recently China Aviation's for 2004 loss of US$550 in crude oil proved yet again that you don't want to trade against trend followers. Trend followers won what China Aviation 1088 trading is a zero sum game after all.

I also challenge readers to discover their personal capabilities. I do not care who you are. I make it clear that, in order to be a successful trend follower , you do not need any prior trading experience. YOU do not need an education in finance or an MBA. You do not need to work on Wall street（As you will leam in Chapter 2, many of the great trend followers have none of these qualifications） ,For the past ten years traders , inveslors and people simply interested inlearning more about the markets have visited my Trend Followingsites and received my newsletters. They represent 132 countries ， Including , of Course, China. My staff and I answer queries from visitors ，students and readers about the potential of trend following on a regular basis. Anyone can earn profits over the long term with trend following if they are motivated to learn, have an Interest in human behavior and decision-making,and the self-discipline to stick to it.

If, for example, you trade only stacks or currencies but plan to expand to additional markets, we hope, after reading this book, you'll come away understanding why you can trade all markets successfully.If you are a business student who wants to learn how to become a trader, we hope you'll be motivated to do just that. If you area business person who wants to enhance your career with a mechanical trading system for global markets, we hope you' ll discover why trend following is the answer. If you are an investor who is tired of being limited to one market, but uncertain how to expand to the nextlevel，we know you'll come away with a fresh outlook and new ideas 

Please feel free to contact the directly with your feedback. I lookforward to hearing from you and, someday, to meeting you in China.

Sincerely,

Michael Covel

info@trendfollowing.com

www.trendfollowing.com

中文版序

获知<趋势跟踪>这本书将会用简体中文出版，我很高兴。这是一本讲述鲜为人知，却取得巨大成功的交易者和他们如何交易的书。内容包括趋势跟踪策略的历史，以及伟大的趋势跟踪交易者如何在市场的重大事件中，作为胜利者凸显出来的故事。趋势跟踪策略吸引着每个对交易、投资和市场都感兴趣的人。为什么如此？因为趋势跟踪的交易方法适用于所有的市场，它超越了地缘政治、文化和语言界限。对于任何国家的投资者来说，它都是世界上最好的长期投资策略。

也许你会对包括亚洲市场的重大事件中，其他交易者亏损，而趋势跟踪交易者却在赚钱感兴趣。比如， 一名流氓交易者在英格兰皇后银行过度交易日经225 指数，导致了1995 年巴林银行的破产。那么这些钱都被谁赚去了？当然是趋势跟踪交易者。1997 年的亚洲金融危机，使一位声名狼藉的对冲基金交易者在一天之内损失了上亿美元。为什么在他误判市场的同时，趋势跟踪交易者却能做出正确的判断。还有，就是最近的2004 年，在原油上亏损达5 .5亿美元的中航油的倾覆，让你无法再反对趋势跟踪交易者的做法，趋势跟踪交局者赚得了中航油的亏损。交易其实是一场零和博弈。